Toronto Blue Jays at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The Toronto Blue Jays shut out the New York Mets 3-0 at Citi Field on June 2, 2023, scoring all three runs in the final two innings to complete a dominant performance. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with the Mets holding a 52% win probability at first pitch, but that figure eroded steadily before reaching 0% by the final out.

The decisive shift in win probability came in the bottom of the eighth, when Brandon Nimmo struck out against Tim Mayza, swinging the model's estimate by 12.9 percentage points against New York. That moment extinguished the Mets' last credible threat and set the stage for Daulton Varsho's two-run home run off Jeff Brigham in the top of the ninth, a swing worth 12.4 percentage points in Toronto's favor that effectively sealed the outcome. Earlier, Francisco Alvarez's single off Chris Bassitt in the bottom of the third had briefly moved the Mets' win probability up by 9.3 points, representing New York's best offensive moment of the night, but Francisco Lindor followed with a strikeout that cost the Mets 7.1 points and snuffed the rally. Brandon Belt's ground into a double play in the top of the eighth, costing Toronto 7.6 points, was the Blue Jays' lone significant stumble.

Chris Bassitt was the night's most valuable individual performer by the DiamondIQ model's measure, generating 57.7 percentage points of win probability for Toronto across his outing. Justin Verlander added 20.1 points and Mayza contributed 12.9 in relief. Among position players, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. led with a 6.5-point WPA and a RE24 of plus-0.5, while Varsho posted a RE24 of plus-0.8 to go with his 2.4-point WPA contribution. The Blue Jays finished with eight hits and committed no errors, while the Mets managed five hits without crossing the plate.