MLB Recap · June 1, 2023

San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

SD10
Final
MIA1

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
SD00021700010111
MIA001000000140

The Story

The San Diego Padres dismantled the Miami Marlins 10-1 at loanDepot park on June 1, 2023, turning what opened as a 58 percent home-team advantage in the DiamondIQ model's estimate into a complete rout that closed at zero percent probability for Miami. The Padres broke through gradually before exploding for seven runs in the sixth inning, building a margin the Marlins never threatened to close. Miami's lone run came in the bottom of the third on a Joey Wendle walk that carried an 8.6 percent win-probability gain for the home side, representing the Marlins' most meaningful moment of the evening against Joe Musgrove.

The decisive damage against Jesús Luzardo came in the fourth and fifth innings. Fernando Tatis Jr. laced a double in the fourth that swung win probability 11.1 percent in San Diego's favor, and Ha-Seong Kim followed with a double of his own off Luzardo worth another 7.0 percent. In the fifth, Gary Sánchez delivered the game's single most impactful play, a home run off Luzardo that added 11.2 percent to the Padres' win probability. Brandon Dixon kept the damage going in the sixth with a single off Matt Barnes that contributed an additional 8.5 percent swing.

On the individual ledger, Sánchez and Tatis Jr. paced the San Diego offense by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, finishing with WPA figures of plus-15.6 and plus-15.3 percent respectively, while Tatis led position players with a RE24 of plus-4.2. Musgrove was equally dominant on the mound, posting a plus-15.6 percent WPA and holding Miami to a single run across what the line score shows was a thoroughly controlled outing, finishing with the same cumulative win-probability contribution as Sánchez.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025SD bats firstFinalMIA win %SD win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 58.4% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Gary Sánchez Home Run
Top 5th · off Jesús Luzardo
+11.2%
Top 4th · off Jesús Luzardo
+11.1%
Joey Wendle Walk
Bot 3rd · off Joe Musgrove
+8.6%
Brandon Dixon Single
Top 6th · off Matt Barnes
+8.5%
Ha-Seong Kim Double
Top 4th · off Jesús Luzardo
+7.0%

Top Batters by WPA

Gary Sánchez+15.6%+2.7 RE24
Fernando Tatis Jr.+15.3%+4.2 RE24
Brandon Dixon+7.9%+0.3 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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