New York Yankees at Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Recap

The Seattle Mariners walked off the New York Yankees 1-0 in ten innings on May 31, 2023, at T-Mobile Park, with Cal Raleigh's run-scoring single off Ron Marinaccio in the bottom of the tenth providing the only run of the game. The DiamondIQ model entered with Seattle holding a 47 percent pre-game win probability and closed at 100 percent after Raleigh's decisive hit, which swung win expectancy by 35.9 percentage points. The game's most consequential sequence, however, unfolded in the top of the tenth before Raleigh stepped in. A fielding error on DJ LeMahieu's at-bat against Justin Topa shifted the win probability 32.0 points in New York's favor, representing the single largest swing of the game until it was erased. Anthony Volpe then grounded into a forceout that cost the Yankees 19.2 points of win probability, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa's pop out removed another 13.3 points, leaving New York unable to capitalize on the gift the error had provided.

George Kirby was the game's dominant individual performer by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, finishing with a WPA of plus 49.7 percent across his innings, holding the Yankees offense largely in check throughout a scoreless regulation. Clarke Schmidt contributed plus 24.2 percent WPA in relief for New York, keeping the Mariners off the board long enough to push the game to extras. Among position players, LeMahieu led all batters with a plus 30.0 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 0.9 despite the Yankees ultimately failing to score, a reflection of the opportunity his error-aided plate appearance created. Raleigh's walk-off single earned him plus 25.7 percent WPA, while Eugenio Suárez added plus 19.9 percent WPA largely on the strength of a groundout in the bottom of the ninth off Clay Holmes that shifted the game's leverage before the decisive inning. New York finished with three hits against Seattle's five in a game defined more by pitching and missed opportunity than by offense.