Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| CHC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
The Story
The Tampa Bay Rays held on for a 4-3 victory over the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on May 31, 2023, overcoming a two-run deficit from the opening frame to claim the road win. The DiamondIQ model had entered the game giving the Cubs a 29 percent chance of winning at home, a figure that collapsed to zero by the final out. The Cubs scored twice in the first inning and did not add to their lead until the seventh, leaving the door open for Tampa Bay to mount its comeback over the final three innings.
The decisive swings came in the seventh and eighth innings, both against Cubs reliever Mark Leiter Jr. Brandon Lowe connected for a home run in the top of the seventh, a play that shifted win probability by plus 26.2 percent in Tampa Bay's favor. Jose Siri then delivered the go-ahead blow in the top of the eighth, a home run that moved the needle another plus 29.4 percent and proved to be the game's single largest swing. Chicago mounted a threat in the ninth, with Patrick Wisdom reaching on a fielder's choice that produced a plus 20.2 percent win-probability move for the Cubs, but Jalen Beeks closed the door as a Miles Mastrobuoni strikeout swung the probability 27.3 percent back toward Tampa Bay to end the game.
By the DiamondIQ model's accounting, Siri finished as the game's top batter with a net WPA of plus 26.7 percent and a RE24 of plus 1.6, while Wisdom led Cubs position players at plus 18.7 percent WPA despite the loss. Edwin Rios added plus 12.3 percent WPA for Tampa Bay. On the mound, Justin Steele was the Cubs' most impactful arm at plus 25.1 percent WPA, while Jason Adam contributed plus 23.3 percent WPA in relief for the Rays, with Hayden Wesneski adding plus 21.6 percent for Chicago.