MLB Recap · May 31, 2023

Pittsburgh Pirates at San Francisco Giants: Final Score & Recap

PIT9
Final
SF4

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
PIT0042020019141
SF0110110004122

The Story

The Pittsburgh Pirates handed the San Francisco Giants a 9-4 defeat at Oracle Park on May 31, 2023, a result that swung decisively and early against the home side. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 53% pre-game win probability favoring San Francisco, but by the final out that figure had collapsed to 0%, reflecting how thoroughly Pittsburgh seized control of the contest. The Pirates finished with 14 hits against 12 for the Giants, with San Francisco's two errors further compounding the damage.

The third inning was where the game effectively turned. Alex Wood absorbed the brunt of Pittsburgh's offense across the middle frames, and Ke'Bryan Hayes delivered the most consequential blow of the night, a triple that shifted win probability by 19.6 percentage points in the Pirates' favor. Rodolfo Castro followed that up with a single worth another 9.5 percentage points, as Pittsburgh pushed four runs across in the third to break the game open. The Giants offered a flicker of a response in the bottom half, but Mike Yastrzemski's strikeout against Mitch Keller erased 6.3 points of San Francisco's win probability and effectively ended any realistic path back. Bryan Reynolds then extended the damage in the fourth with a single off Wood worth 14.7 percentage points, and Pittsburgh added two more runs that inning to push the lead well beyond reach.

By cumulative WPA, Hayes finished as the night's standout offensive contributor at plus-20.1%, backed by a RE24 of plus-1.7, while Reynolds and Castro each posted WPA figures of plus-15.7% and plus-13.3% respectively, with identical RE24 marks of plus-1.4. On the pitching side, Rob Zastryzny led Pittsburgh's relief corps with a WPA of plus-2.1%, followed by Dauri Moreta at plus-1.5% and Robert Stephenson at plus-1.2%, as the bullpen closed out the final innings without incident.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025PIT bats firstFinalSF win %PIT win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 53.1% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Ke'Bryan Hayes Triple
Top 3rd · off Alex Wood
+19.6%
Bryan Reynolds Single
Top 4th · off Alex Wood
+14.7%
Rodolfo Castro Single
Top 3rd · off Alex Wood
+9.5%
Mike Yastrzemski Strikeout
Bot 3rd · off Mitch Keller
-6.3%
Chris Owings Double Play
Top 2nd · off Alex Wood
-6.1%

Top Batters by WPA

Ke'Bryan Hayes+20.1%+1.7 RE24
Bryan Reynolds+15.7%+1.4 RE24
Rodolfo Castro+13.3%+1.4 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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