Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets defeated the Philadelphia Phillies 4-1 at Citi Field on May 31, 2023, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 60 percent pre-game home win probability to 100 percent by the final out. The game turned decisively in the third and fourth innings, where Mark Canha did the bulk of the damage against Aaron Nola. Canha's home run in the bottom of the third added 17.3 percent to New York's win probability, representing the single largest swing of the night, and he followed it with a single in the bottom of the fourth that pushed the lever another 15.4 percent. The Phillies had briefly given themselves a foothold when Edmundo Sosa connected on a solo home run off Carlos Carrasco in the top of the third, a swing worth plus 10.5 percent for Philadelphia, but New York's two-run third and two-run fourth framing around that moment left the visitors chasing a deficit they never closed.

After those early innings, the game settled into a prolonged scoreless stretch from the fifth through the ninth, with neither club adding to the run column. Carrasco finished as the top-performing pitcher by win probability added, contributing plus 9.7 percent for the Mets, with Brooks Raley adding another plus 7.5 percent in relief. Canha led all position players with a combined WPA of plus 32.5 and an RE24 of plus 3.0, making him the clear offensive engine of New York's effort. Sosa, meanwhile, ended as something of a conflicted figure for Philadelphia, responsible for both the team's lone bright spot and two of its most damaging outs, including a double play in the fifth worth minus 8.1 percent and a strikeout against David Robertson in the ninth worth minus 4.9 percent. The Phillies collected nine hits against just five for the Mets, yet the run total told the only story that mattered.