MLB Recap · May 30, 2023

Pittsburgh Pirates at San Francisco Giants: Final Score & Recap

PIT2
Final
SF1

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
PIT100010000260
SF100000000151

The Story

The Pittsburgh Pirates handed the San Francisco Giants a 2-1 defeat at Oracle Park on May 30, 2023, overcoming a pre-game DiamondIQ model estimate that gave the home side a 55 percent chance of winning. Pittsburgh scored in the first inning and added an insurance run in the fifth, and that two-run cushion proved just enough as the Giants were unable to claw back against a Pittsburgh bullpen that held firm through the game's most critical moments.

The decisive sequence came in the final two innings, when the Pirates' relief corps extinguished San Francisco's best threats. Colin Holderman navigated the eighth inning as the most impactful single event in his favor, though Michael Conforto's single briefly kept Giants hopes alive with an 8.6 percent swing in San Francisco's direction before Casey Schmitt's flyout swung momentum back by 16.5 percent. Closer David Bednar then slammed the door in the ninth, and the game's single largest win-probability moment came when LaMonte Wade Jr. lifted a flyout to end a threat, a play that shifted Pittsburgh's win probability by 31.6 percent in the Pirates' favor. Patrick Bailey's strikeout to end the game added an 8.5 percent final swing toward Pittsburgh.

LaMonte Wade Jr. led all batters with a 41.8 percent WPA contribution despite going to the plate in a losing cause, reflecting how close San Francisco came to a rally. Joshua Palacios and Blake Sabol contributed modest positive swings for the Giants as well. On the pitching side, Colin Holderman led all pitchers with a 27.9 percent WPA, followed by Jose E. Hernandez at 13.4 percent and Johan Oviedo at 13.3 percent, a trio whose collective effort secured the one-run victory for Pittsburgh.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025PIT bats firstFinalSF win %PIT win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 54.9% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

LaMonte Wade Jr. Flyout
Bot 9th · off David Bednar
+31.6%
Casey Schmitt Flyout
Bot 8th · off Colin Holderman
-16.5%
Michael Conforto Single
Bot 8th · off Colin Holderman
+8.6%
Patrick Bailey Strikeout
Bot 9th · off David Bednar
-8.5%
Patrick Bailey Double Play
Bot 6th · off Jose E. Hernandez
-8.4%

Top Batters by WPA

LaMonte Wade Jr.+41.8%+0.3 RE24
Joshua Palacios+6.1%+0.5 RE24
Blake Sabol+4.7%+0.8 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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