San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 1 |
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 3 |
The Story
The San Diego Padres rallied past the Miami Marlins 9-4 at loanDepot park on May 30, 2023, overcoming an early home-field lean to close out a dominant road win. The DiamondIQ model's estimate had Miami entering at a 59% pre-game win probability, but by final out that figure sat at 0%, a complete reversal driven by a series of momentum-shifting plays scattered across the middle and late innings.
The decisive swings came primarily from Juan Soto, whose contributions headlined the biggest win-probability moves of the game. His intentional walk in the top of the ninth inning — issued by Dylan Floro — registered a +22.5% swing in San Diego's favor, reflecting just how dangerous the bases-loaded situation had become for Miami at that stage. Earlier, his single off Tanner Scott in the seventh added another +20.3%, and combined those two plays alone account for the bulk of his remarkable +52.6% cumulative WPA on the night. For Miami's side, Bryan De La Cruz provided the most consequential moment in the Marlins' favor, a fourth-inning home run off Ryan Weathers that generated a +21.6% swing and pushed his final WPA to +32.1% with a +2.9 RE24. The Padres' five-run ninth inning, however, rendered Miami's earlier contributions insufficient. Matt Carpenter's double off Sandy Alcantara in the fourth, worth +12.9%, helped San Diego establish its foothold, while Jorge Soler's eighth-inning double play off Nick Martinez represented Miami's most damaging self-inflicted setback at -17.0%.
On the pitching side, Nick Martinez led the Padres' staff with a +10.9% WPA contribution, followed by Steven Wilson at +8.3% and Andrew Nardi at +7.2%, a collective effort that kept Miami from mounting any sustained threat late. Ha-Seong Kim rounded out San Diego's notable offensive contributors with a +15.4% WPA and +1.0 RE24. The Marlins committed three errors against San Diego's one, a disparity that compounded their inability to contain a Padres lineup that finished with 11 hits and nine runs on a night the DiamondIQ model came to favor the road team decisively as the game progressed.