Atlanta Braves at Oakland Athletics: Final Score & Recap

The Oakland Athletics walked off the Atlanta Braves 2-1 on May 30, 2023, at Oakland Coliseum, completing a comeback that the DiamondIQ model's estimate had given just an 18 percent chance of occurring before first pitch. Kevin Pillar gave Atlanta its only lead with a solo home run in the third inning off JP Sears, a swing that added 10.5 percent in win probability for the Braves. Oakland answered with a run in the fifth to level the score, and from there both bullpens kept the game deadlocked through eight innings. A.J. Minter came close to protecting a path to extras when he induced a Ryan Noda strikeout in the bottom of the eighth, a moment that swung win probability 11.3 percent in Atlanta's favor.

The ninth inning unraveled quickly for Raisel Iglesias and the Braves. JJ Bleday drew a walk to open the frame, adding 12.5 percent to Oakland's win probability, and Jonah Bride followed with a walk-off fielder's choice that closed out the game and delivered a swing of 15.9 percent, pushing the DiamondIQ model's estimate to 100 percent in Oakland's favor. Bleday finished as the game's top offensive contributor at plus-16.8 percent WPA and plus-1.1 RE24, while Esteury Ruiz added plus-11.7 percent WPA and Pillar led all Braves batters at plus-10.3 percent WPA despite the loss.

JP Sears was the story on the mound, posting a remarkable plus-32.8 percent WPA by limiting Atlanta to a single run over his outing while Pillar's homer stood as the lone blemish. Austin Pruitt contributed plus-16.5 percent WPA in relief and Sam Moll added plus-12.5 percent, collectively preserving the slim margin long enough for Oakland's lineup to deliver in the ninth and complete an unlikely victory against a team the model had opened as heavy favorites.