MLB Recap · May 29, 2023

New York Yankees at Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Recap

NYY10
Final
SEA4

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
NYY01214100110180
SEA010120000471

The Story

The New York Yankees defeated the Seattle Mariners 10-4 on May 29, 2023, at T-Mobile Park, finishing a game the DiamondIQ model's estimate had opened as nearly a coin flip at 47% in favor of Seattle and closed at 0% for the home side. New York pounded out 18 hits without committing an error while Seattle's one miscue contributed to a lopsided outcome that grew increasingly decisive as the middle innings unfolded.

The decisive turning points came in clusters and were driven primarily by Aaron Judge. His third-inning home run off Bryce Miller represented the single largest win-probability swing of the night at plus-16.4%, and he added a double in the fifth inning worth another plus-7.8% as the Yankees continued to pile on. Jake Bauers compounded Miller's troubles with a solo home run in the fourth inning for a plus-8.9% swing, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa's fifth-inning double off Miller added plus-8.2%. Seattle's lone significant counterpunch came in the bottom of the fourth, when Julio Rodríguez launched a home run off Domingo Germán that shifted the model's estimate by plus-10.0% in the Mariners' direction, briefly keeping the game within reach before New York's fifth-inning outburst effectively closed the door.

Judge finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-28.6% with a RE24 of plus-3.7, reflecting sustained damage throughout the lineup. Bauers also made a meaningful contribution at plus-12.2% WPA and plus-3.3 RE24. Rodríguez led Seattle with plus-16.7% WPA and plus-2.5 RE24, though his efforts were insufficient against a Yankees offense that produced runs in six of nine innings. Ron Marinaccio led New York's relievers at plus-2.3% WPA as the bullpen held the Mariners in check after Germán departed.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025NYY bats firstFinalSEA win %NYY win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 46.8% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Aaron Judge Home Run
Top 3rd · off Bryce Miller
+16.4%
Julio Rodríguez Home Run
Bot 4th · off Domingo Germán
+10.0%
Jake Bauers Home Run
Top 4th · off Bryce Miller
+8.9%
Top 5th · off Bryce Miller
+8.2%
Aaron Judge Double
Top 5th · off Bryce Miller
+7.8%

Top Batters by WPA

Aaron Judge+28.6%+3.7 RE24
Julio Rodríguez+16.7%+2.5 RE24
Jake Bauers+12.2%+3.3 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

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