Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks defeated the Colorado Rockies 7-5 on May 29, 2023, at Chase Field, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 67 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. The game's decisive stretch came in the second inning, when the teams combined for nine runs. Colorado grabbed the early lead with a Ryan McMahon single off Ryne Nelson that added 15.3 percent to Colorado's win probability, but Arizona answered emphatically in the bottom half when Pavin Smith launched a home run off Karl Kauffmann, the single biggest swing of the night at plus 19.2 percent for the Diamondbacks. Arizona scored five runs in that inning to take a lead they would not relinquish, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. added further cushion with a solo home run off Kauffmann in the bottom of the fourth, worth another 8.5 percent in win probability.

McMahon was the most impactful individual offensive performer despite being on the losing side, finishing with a combined WPA of plus 28.0 percent and an RE24 of plus 3.2, highlighted by his second-inning single and a triple off Nelson in the fifth that added 14.6 percent. Pavin Smith contributed plus 17.7 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 2.6 for Arizona, while Randal Grichuk chipped in plus 8.6 percent WPA. On the mound, Drey Jameson was the most valuable arm in the game, posting plus 25.6 percent WPA for Arizona, with a notable moment coming in the seventh when Harold Castro struck out against him at a cost of 9.1 percent to Colorado's win probability. Matt Carasiti added plus 9.4 percent WPA in relief, and Andrew Chafin contributed plus 2.4 percent as Arizona's bullpen secured the two-run victory.