Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds handed the Chicago Cubs an 8-5 defeat at Wrigley Field on May 28, 2023, erasing what the DiamondIQ model had measured as a 51 percent pre-game home win probability for Chicago and reducing it to zero by the final out. The Reds collected 14 hits and committed no errors while the Cubs managed 9 hits and were hurt by one miscue of their own. Cincinnati scored in five of nine innings, with the most decisive bursts coming in the fifth and sixth frames, each producing two runs.

The game's single largest win-probability swing belonged to Patrick Wisdom, whose second-inning home run off Graham Ashcraft shifted Chicago's outlook by plus-20.9 percent in the Cubs' favor and gave Chicago an early 3-2 lead. That advantage proved short-lived. Cincinnati answered emphatically in the top of the fifth, where a TJ Friedl double off Jeremiah Estrada moved the needle plus-13.1 percent for the Reds, followed immediately by a Kevin Newman walk that added another plus-10.3 percent and kept the inning alive. Spencer Steer then delivered the decisive blow in the top of the sixth, a home run off Brandon Hughes worth plus-17.5 percent, effectively breaking Chicago's back.

Wisdom finished as the game's top performer by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, posting a cumulative plus-28.9 percent WPA and plus-4.9 RE24 across his two most impactful plate appearances, including a bases-loaded walk in the sixth that extended Chicago's deficit further. Newman contributed plus-15.6 percent WPA and plus-2.3 RE24, while Friedl added plus-13.5 percent WPA. On the pitching side, Lucas Sims led Cincinnati's relievers with plus-4.1 percent WPA, followed by Ian Gibaut at plus-1.7 percent and Michael Fulmer at plus-0.7 percent, as the Reds bullpen closed out the win without allowing Chicago to threaten seriously after the eighth.