Boston Red Sox at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks defeated the Boston Red Sox 4-2 at Chase Field on May 28, 2023, taking a game in which the DiamondIQ model's estimate opened at a 58 percent home win probability and closed at 100 percent. Arizona did the bulk of its damage early, plating three runs in the first inning and one more in the second to build a 4-0 cushion that Boston never meaningfully threatened. The Red Sox managed eight hits on the night but were unable to string together enough offense to overcome that deficit, going scoreless through the middle six innings before adding single runs in the seventh and eighth.

The decisive stretch came in the Arizona first and second innings, where Merrill Kelly set the tone from the mound while his offense staked him to a comfortable lead. Kelly finished as the game's most impactful pitcher by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, accumulating plus-17.4 percent in win probability added over his outing. A Enrique Hernández groundout against Kelly in the second, costing Boston 6.9 percent in win probability, illustrated how effectively the right-hander kept Red Sox rallies from gaining traction. Corbin Carroll led all position players with plus-10.5 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.4, representing Arizona's most valuable offensive contribution on the evening.

Boston's most notable sequence came in the top of the eighth, when the Red Sox generated consecutive positive plays off Kyle Nelson. Masataka Yoshida singled to add 7.1 percent in win probability, and Justin Turner followed with a home run worth plus-9.2 percent, accounting for both Boston runs in the inning. Turner finished with plus-6.4 percent WPA on the night and Yoshida with plus-9.6 percent, making them the Red Sox's top two contributors by that measure. However, Raimel Tapia's flyout to end the inning, costing 7.3 percent in win probability off José Ruiz, ended any realistic hope of a comeback, and Arizona's bullpen secured the final three outs without incident.