New York Mets at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap

The Colorado Rockies defeated the New York Mets 11-10 on May 28, 2023, at Coors Field in a high-scoring contest that saw the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Colorado win climb from a pre-game 48% all the way to 100% by the final out. The Mets entered the fourth inning with genuine momentum, as Francisco Alvarez delivered the game's single largest win-probability swing with a home run off Austin Gomber that shifted the odds 26.2 percentage points in New York's favor, and Tommy Pham followed with a double off the same pitcher for an additional 14.1-point swing. By the end of the top half of the fourth, the Mets had plated six runs and appeared to be in firm control.

Colorado answered immediately and emphatically. Ryan McMahon's double off Tylor Megill in the bottom of the fourth swung win probability 21.4 points toward the Rockies, and Randal Grichuk followed with a double of his own for a further 12.3-point shift, helping Colorado score four in the inning to cut sharply into the deficit. The Rockies then seized the lead entirely in the bottom of the fifth, when Charlie Blackmon launched a home run off Stephen Nogosek worth a 20.0-point swing, capping a five-run frame that put Colorado ahead for good. The Mets scored three in the ninth to make the final respectable at 11-10, but they could not complete the comeback.

McMahon was the clear standout performer by DiamondIQ's metrics, finishing with a WPA of plus-33.6% and an RE24 of plus-4.4, the best marks on either side. Blackmon contributed plus-24.2% WPA and plus-2.1 RE24, while Grichuk added plus-22.0% WPA and plus-1.7 RE24 to round out a Colorado offense that collectively overwhelmed a Mets pitching staff unable to hold multiple large leads. On the mound, Peter Lambert led Colorado's pitchers with plus-5.1% WPA, and Daniel Bard followed at plus-4.8%, as the two combined to stabilize the game after the chaotic middle innings.