San Francisco Giants at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the San Francisco Giants 7-5 on May 28, 2023, at American Family Field, building an insurmountable early lead that held through a late Giants rally. The DiamondIQ model entered the game with Milwaukee as a 56 percent favorite and closed at 100 percent, reflecting how decisively the Brewers controlled the contest after the first two innings.

Milwaukee did its most critical damage early, scoring three runs in the first inning and four more in the second against Alex Cobb, effectively ending the game as a competitive affair before San Francisco could establish any offensive rhythm. The highest single-play win-probability swing of the night came in the bottom of the second, when Brian Anderson's groundout added 10.2 percent to Milwaukee's win probability, a figure that underscores how efficiently the Brewers were extending their advantage with runners on base in that frame. Owen Miller's single in that same inning added another 6.5 percent, and Brice Turang's strikeout to end the first contributed 5.1 percent as Milwaukee's bullpen and lineup combined to keep the door closed early. Brandon Crawford's strikeout in the top of the second, off Colin Rea, represented the Giants' single costliest moment at the plate, costing San Francisco 6.8 percent in win probability. Blake Sabol's seventh-inning home run off Colin Rea, worth 9.4 percent for the Giants, headlined a four-run top-seventh frame that made the final score respectable but arrived far too late.

Brian Anderson led all batters with a 11.7 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-0.7, while William Contreras and Owen Miller each contributed meaningfully, posting RE24 marks of plus-2.6 and plus-2.4 respectively. On the mound, Devin Williams was the most impactful arm of the night at plus-9.9 percent WPA, with Peter Strzelecki adding 4.5 percent and Tristan Beck contributing 2.8 percent as Milwaukee's bullpen finished off what the early offense had started.