Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies held off the Atlanta Braves 2-1 at Truist Park on May 27, 2023, handing the home side a loss despite entering the evening as 65-percent favorites according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate. Philadelphia's two runs came entirely in the fifth inning, and a ninth-inning scare from Atlanta proved too little to erase the deficit, as the model's final win probability for the Braves settled at zero.

The decisive sequence arrived in the top of the fifth against Charlie Morton, when Trea Turner delivered a double that swung Philadelphia's win probability by plus-15.4 percent, followed almost immediately by a Kody Clemens double that added another plus-11.8 percent swing and drove in what proved to be the margin of victory. Those two hits accounted for the game's entire scoring cushion, and the Phillies never needed to add to it. Atlanta mounted one legitimate threat in the bottom of the ninth off Craig Kimbrel, when Sean Murphy's home run nudged the Braves' win probability up by 7.0 percent, but any remaining hope evaporated when Eddie Rosario struck out to end the game, a result that carried a plus-31.6 percent win-probability impact for Philadelphia and closed the door entirely.

Zack Wheeler was the overwhelming force behind the outcome, accumulating plus-59.4 percent in pitcher WPA, a figure that underscored how thoroughly he suppressed Atlanta's lineup across the night, limiting the Braves to four hits. Among position players, Rosario led Philadelphia with plus-19.9 percent WPA despite a negative RE24 of minus-0.7, while Turner and Clemens contributed plus-13.1 and plus-10.7 percent WPA respectively, with Clemens posting the best run-expectancy figure of the three at plus-1.0 RE24. A.J. Minter provided the Braves' most valuable pitching contribution at plus-8.0 percent WPA, but his team's offensive output was simply not enough to overcome Wheeler's dominance.