San Diego Padres at New York Yankees: Final Score & Recap

The New York Yankees walked off the San Diego Padres 3-2 in ten innings on May 27, 2023, at Yankee Stadium, completing a comeback that the DiamondIQ model's estimate had tilted heavily in New York's favor from the opening pitch at 65 percent and ultimately closed at 100 percent. The Yankees trailed until the seventh inning, when DJ LeMahieu delivered the game's single most impactful offensive moment, a home run off Michael Wacha that shifted win probability by plus 18.1 percent and knotted the game at two. San Diego had scratched across a run in the fourth to take a 1-0 lead and added another in the seventh, but LeMahieu's blast erased that advantage and set the stage for an extra-inning finish. The Padres managed only three hits on the night, and their offense went quiet when it mattered most, as Fernando Tatis Jr. grounded out in the top of the tenth with the ghost runner on base, a play that actually swung 14.3 percent in the Yankees' favor given the leverage of the moment.

The ninth inning nearly ended things before extra innings, though not in New York's favor. Aaron Judge grounded into a double play against Nick Martinez, a sequence that shifted win probability 17.5 percent toward San Diego, and Anthony Rizzo also struck out in that frame. The Yankees ultimately won it in the bottom of the tenth when Isiah Kiner-Falefa singled off Martinez to plate the deciding run, a hit worth plus 16.9 percent in win probability.

LeMahieu finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus 24.2 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.4, while Tatis Jr. led all Padres players despite the loss, posting plus 20.1 percent WPA and plus 0.4 RE24. On the mound, both Michael Wacha and Wandy Peralta each contributed plus 18.7 percent WPA for New York, with Luis Severino adding plus 15.9 percent, a collective pitching effort that kept San Diego's three-hit night from ever truly threatening a lead the Yankees were still chasing until the seventh.