MLB Recap · May 26, 2023

Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

CIN9
Final
CHC0

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
CIN2013100029190
CHC000000000022

The Story

The Cincinnati Reds silenced Wrigley Field on May 26, 2023, routing the Chicago Cubs 9-0 behind a dominant pitching performance and a relentless 19-hit attack that left the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Chicago win falling from 55 percent before first pitch all the way to zero. The Reds wasted no time erasing that pregame edge, scoring twice in the first inning and adding single runs in the third and fifth before a three-spot in the fourth effectively ended any competitive tension. Cincinnati finished with nine runs on 19 hits and committed no errors, while the Cubs managed just two hits and were charged with two errors across nine scoreless innings.

The game's most consequential sequence came in the early innings, when the Cubs' best opportunities to seize momentum were extinguished at the plate. Ian Happ's pop out to lead off the bottom of the first against Hunter Greene cost Chicago 6.5 percent in win probability, and Matt Mervis's strikeout in the second removed another 7.0 percent, according to the DiamondIQ model. On the Cincinnati side, Kevin Newman's strikeout to open the top of the first proved deceptive, as he ultimately finished as the game's top offensive contributor at plus-9.5 percent WPA. Nick Senzel's single off Justin Steele in the third was the single biggest positive swing of the night at plus-7.3 percent, and Curt Casali's sacrifice bunt in the fourth added another 5.1 percent as the Reds methodically built their cushion against Steele.

Hunter Greene was the central figure of the evening, posting a plus-25.0 percent WPA that dwarfed every other performer in the game and reflected near-total dominance against a Cubs lineup that could generate almost nothing against him. Tyler Stephenson contributed plus-5.0 percent WPA and a plus-0.5 RE24, rounding out a balanced Cincinnati effort. The model leans toward crediting the Reds' pitching staff as the decisive factor, as Greene and relievers Javier Assad and Fernando Cruz combined to hold Chicago to two hits while the offense provided more than ample support.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025CIN bats firstFinalCHC win %CIN win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 54.9% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Nick Senzel Single
Top 3rd · off Justin Steele
+7.3%
Matt Mervis Strikeout
Bot 2nd · off Hunter Greene
-7.0%
Ian Happ Pop Out
Bot 1st · off Hunter Greene
-6.5%
Curt Casali Sac Bunt
Top 4th · off Justin Steele
+5.1%
Kevin Newman Strikeout
Top 1st · off Justin Steele
+4.8%

Top Batters by WPA

Kevin Newman+9.5%+0.7 RE24
Nick Senzel+6.9%-1.2 RE24
Tyler Stephenson+5.0%+0.5 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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