San Diego Padres at New York Yankees: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres silenced Yankee Stadium on May 26, 2023, defeating the New York Yankees 5-1 to overcome a pre-game environment where the DiamondIQ model's estimate gave the home side a 63% chance of winning. The game remained scoreless through four innings before Juan Soto broke it open with a home run off Randy Vásquez in the top of the fifth, a swing the DiamondIQ model registered as the single most consequential play of the night at plus 23.5% win probability. Fernando Tatis Jr. followed with another home run in the top of the sixth off Ron Marinaccio, adding another plus 17.5% swing that effectively extinguished any realistic path to a Yankees comeback. Aaron Judge provided New York's most meaningful moment with a double off Joe Musgrove in the bottom of the sixth worth plus 8.3% win probability, but the Yankees were unable to convert that opportunity into a rally, as DJ LeMahieu's flyout cost the home side 4.1% and the inning faded quietly.

The pitching performance from San Diego's staff was the structural backbone of the victory. Joe Musgrove led all pitchers on the night with a plus 24.9% WPA, navigating through the Yankees' lineup and limiting the damage to a single run across his stint. Steven Wilson reinforced the effort with a plus 13.5% WPA showing, and a strikeout of Isiah Kiner-Falefa in the bottom of the seventh, worth a 4.7% swing in the Padres' favor, underscored how thoroughly San Diego controlled the late innings. Ryan Weber contributed an additional plus 1.6% to close out the outing. By the final out, the DiamondIQ model's estimate had moved from 37% in favor of the visitors at first pitch all the way to 100%, a complete reversal driven by Soto's plus 19.9% WPA and Tatis's plus 12.7% WPA at the plate, with Brandon Dixon contributing a supporting plus 5.6% to round out a dominant road performance.