San Diego Padres at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres defeated the Washington Nationals 8-6 at Nationals Park on May 25, 2023, in a game that appeared to be slipping away before a stunning ninth-inning reversal. Washington had clawed back with a five-run seventh inning that erased a 5-1 San Diego lead and briefly shifted the balance of the contest, with Corey Dickerson's single off Nick Martinez adding 22.3% to the Nationals' win probability and Alex Call's single moments later contributing another 20.3%. That rally gave Washington real footing heading into the late innings, and the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected a genuinely competitive game entering the final frames.

What unraveled Washington's position was a single swing in the top of the ninth. With San Diego trailing or in need of insurance, Rougned Odor launched a home run off Hunter Harvey that swung win probability by 80.4% in the Padres' favor, the most consequential play of the game by a wide margin. Odor had already been a factor earlier, posting a double off Andrés Machado in the fifth that carried a 14.4% win probability swing. His combined WPA of plus-90.8% and RE24 of plus-3.6 made him the clear driver of the San Diego victory. Josh Hader then closed out the ninth, including a strikeout of Alex Call that added 14.4% to San Diego's win probability, sealing the result and moving the DiamondIQ model's final home win estimate to 0%.

On the pitching side, Blake Snell led Padres starters with a WPA of plus-18.5%, while Kyle Finnegan contributed plus-10.8% in relief. For Washington, Jeimer Candelario was the most productive offensive contributor beyond the ninth-inning drama, posting a WPA of plus-26.3% and an RE24 of plus-1.5, largely on the strength of his involvement in the seventh-inning rally. San Diego finished with nine hits against Washington's twelve, but Odor's late blow proved to be the decisive difference in a game that the model leaned toward as a toss-up at first pitch.