MLB Recap · May 25, 2023

New York Mets at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

NYM10
Final
CHC1

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
NYM10301023010150
CHC100000000162

The Story

The New York Mets routed the Chicago Cubs 10-1 at Wrigley Field on May 25, 2023, a result so one-sided that the DiamondIQ model's estimate of Chicago's win probability, which opened at 48 percent before first pitch, collapsed to 0 percent by the final out. The Mets spread their 10 runs across five different innings and finished with 15 hits against zero errors, while the Cubs committed two errors of their own in what became a thoroughly lopsided afternoon on the North Side.

The decisive turning point came in the top of the third inning against Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks, when Starling Marte delivered a single that shifted win probability by 20.4 percentage points in New York's favor, the single largest swing of the game. Brett Baty followed with his own single later in the frame, adding another 8.5 points of win probability. The Cubs briefly threatened in the bottom of the third against Carlos Carrasco, with Seiya Suzuki drawing a walk that nudged Chicago's odds by 5.0 points, but Mike Tauchman's groundout swung momentum back 8.1 points the other way and extinguished the rally before it could develop. Pete Alonso then provided the punctuation in the seventh, connecting off Michael Rucker for a home run worth 4.8 points of win probability added.

Among the individual standouts, Marte led all position players with a final WPA of plus-19.6 and an RE24 of plus-1.7, while Baty finished at plus-13.1 WPA. Alonso posted the game's highest RE24 at plus-3.1 despite his plus-7.8 WPA ranking third among Mets hitters. On the mound, Carlos Carrasco was the story, earning a WPA of plus-19.9 to pace all pitchers and anchor a performance that never gave the Cubs a realistic path back into the contest.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025NYM bats firstFinalCHC win %NYM win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 47.9% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Starling Marte Single
Top 3rd · off Kyle Hendricks
+20.4%
Brett Baty Single
Top 3rd · off Kyle Hendricks
+8.5%
Mike Tauchman Groundout
Bot 3rd · off Carlos Carrasco
-8.1%
Seiya Suzuki Walk
Bot 3rd · off Carlos Carrasco
+5.0%
Pete Alonso Home Run
Top 7th · off Michael Rucker
+4.8%

Top Batters by WPA

Starling Marte+19.6%+1.7 RE24
Brett Baty+13.1%+0.5 RE24
Pete Alonso+7.8%+3.1 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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