St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Cincinnati Reds 2-1 on May 25, 2023, at Great American Ball Park in a game that remained scoreless through seven innings before a two-run Cardinals eighth proved to be the difference. The DiamondIQ model entered the night giving Cincinnati a 52% win probability, but by the final out that figure had collapsed to zero as St. Louis rode dominant pitching and a single decisive offensive burst to the road victory.

The game turned in the top of the eighth, where Nolan Gorman delivered the most impactful offensive play of the night, a double off Lucas Sims that shifted win probability 18.5 points in St. Louis's favor. The Cardinals pushed two runs across in that frame, and the Reds' attempts to answer in the bottom of the eighth fell short, with Jake Fraley's forceout off Giovanny Gallegos swinging 12.3 points away from Cincinnati and Jonathan India's pop out off Drew VerHagen costing the home side another 11.0 points. Cincinnati did scratch across a run in the ninth, but Gallegos closed the door with a strikeout of Luke Maile that generated a game-sealing 27.0-point win-probability swing and preserved the Cardinals' one-run advantage.

From a performer standpoint, Miles Mikolas led all players with a remarkable plus-38.1% WPA contribution on the mound, anchoring a Cardinals pitching effort that scattered seven hits while committing just one error against none for Cincinnati. Luke Weaver added plus-22.3% WPA in relief. On the offensive side, Gorman finished at plus-15.1% WPA with a plus-0.9 RE24, while Maile, credited with plus-16.8% WPA, was the top batter by that measure despite a negative RE24 of minus-0.8, reflecting how critical that final strikeout was in the context of a one-run game. TJ Friedl paced Cincinnati's side at plus-13.5% WPA and plus-1.1 RE24, though the Reds' offense ultimately could not overcome the Cardinals' pitching staff.