MLB Recap · May 24, 2023

Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap

AZ5
Final
PHI6

Line Score

Team12345678910RHE
AZ1040000000561
PHI00000300216110

The Story

The Philadelphia Phillies walked off the Arizona Diamondbacks 6-5 in ten innings on May 24, 2023, at Citizens Bank Park, completing a comeback that began with the game seemingly in hand for neither side. The DiamondIQ model opened with Arizona as a slight road favorite, placing the home win probability at just 43 percent before first pitch, but that estimate climbed to 100 percent by the final out as Philadelphia authored a dramatic late rally.

Arizona jumped ahead early, with Evan Longoria delivering a three-run home run off Ranger Suarez in the top of the third inning, a swing that shifted win probability by 13.4 percent in the Diamondbacks' favor and pushed their lead to 5-0 through three. That advantage held through the fifth, but Philadelphia chipped away in the bottom of the sixth, where Brandon Marsh's single off Kevin Ginkel proved to be the pivotal moment of that frame, generating an 18.6 percent win-probability swing as the Phillies pulled closer. The game remained tight entering the ninth, when Trea Turner delivered the decisive blow of the night, a home run off José Ruiz that produced the single largest win-probability swing of the contest at plus 49.8 percent, erasing Arizona's lead and forcing extra innings. In the tenth, Kody Clemens drew a walk off Ruiz that carried a 22.5 percent win-probability impact and loaded the bases for the game-winning run, which Philadelphia eventually pushed across to close out the victory.

Among the top performers by DiamondIQ's win-probability metrics, Turner led all batters with a plus 42.1 percent WPA and a plus 1.0 RE24, while Emmanuel Rivera posted the game's best RE24 at plus 1.2 to go alongside a plus 15.1 percent WPA, and Clemens added plus 15.2 percent WPA and plus 0.8 RE24. On the pitching side, Scott McGough led Arizona's staff with a plus 19.5 percent WPA, and Zac Gallen contributed plus 16.5 percent before the bullpen ultimately surrendered the lead. Connor Brogdon added plus 7.7 percent WPA for Philadelphia in a supporting role out of the pen.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025AZ bats firstFinalPHI win %AZ win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 42.9% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Trea Turner Home Run
Bot 9th · off José Ruiz
+49.8%
Kody Clemens Walk
Bot 10th · off José Ruiz
+22.5%
Brandon Marsh Single
Bot 6th · off Kevin Ginkel
+18.6%
Pavin Smith Lineout
Top 10th · off Craig Kimbrel
+14.3%
Evan Longoria Home Run
Top 3rd · off Ranger Suarez
+13.4%

Top Batters by WPA

Trea Turner+42.1%+1.0 RE24
Kody Clemens+15.2%+0.8 RE24
Emmanuel Rivera+15.1%+1.2 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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