St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds handed the St. Louis Cardinals a lopsided 10-3 defeat on May 24, 2023, at Great American Ball Park, turning what the DiamondIQ model projected as a relatively even contest — a 54 percent pre-game home win probability — into a runaway by the end of the first inning. Cincinnati erupted for four runs in the bottom of the first and never relinquished control, with the model's estimate climbing steadily toward its final reading of 100 percent in Cincinnati's favor.

The game's most consequential sequence came in the opening frame. Luke Maile's groundout off Steven Matz carried a win-probability swing of plus 7.5 percent for the Reds, and Spencer Steer's groundout in the second inning added another plus 7.3 percent, reflecting how consistently St. Louis struggled to escape jams as Cincinnati batters kept the line moving. The single most damaging moment for the Cardinals, however, arrived in the top of the second, when Lars Nootbaar grounded out against Ben Lively in a high-leverage spot, a play that cost St. Louis 10.7 percent in win probability and effectively sealed the tone of the afternoon. The Cardinals did manage isolated bright spots — Brendan Donovan connected for a home run off Lively in the fourth for a plus 5.0 percent swing, and Nootbaar added a solo shot in the fifth worth plus 4.6 percent — but those moments were far too infrequent to threaten Cincinnati's comfortable cushion.

Ben Lively was the performance anchor of the evening, leading all pitchers with plus 14.8 percent WPA for Cincinnati. Among position players, Spencer Steer led with plus 8.9 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.9, while Kevin Newman contributed plus 6.7 percent WPA and led the group with a RE24 of plus 2.5, underscoring his consistent presence in Cincinnati's 18-hit attack. The Reds finished the game without committing an error, while St. Louis committed one, a clean summary of the execution gap that defined the contest from the opening inning forward.