St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

The Milwaukee Brewers blanked the St. Louis Cardinals 4-0 on April 7, 2023, at American Family Field, a result that moved the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Brewers win from 54 percent before the first pitch to a certainty by the final out. Milwaukee scored in three separate innings, plating two in the third, one in the sixth, and one in the seventh, while holding St. Louis scoreless on five hits across nine innings.

The game's most consequential sequence came in the third inning when Garrett Mitchell delivered a single off Jack Flaherty that shifted win probability by plus-9.3 percent, helping Milwaukee build an early advantage it would never relinquish. The Cardinals had their best opportunity to respond in the fourth, where Nolan Arenado produced a single off Brandon Woodruff that added 7.8 percent to St. Louis's win probability, but Willson Contreras immediately erased that momentum by grounding into a double play, a play that swung win probability by minus-15.0 percent and proved to be the single most damaging moment of the game for the Cardinals. Tyler O'Neill's groundout in the sixth, which cost St. Louis another 10.7 percent in win probability off Joel Payamps, further illustrated how thoroughly Milwaukee contained any threat.

Brandon Woodruff was the dominant force on the night, leading all pitchers with plus-18.9 percent WPA, while Joel Payamps added plus-7.0 percent in relief and Gus Varland contributed plus-2.8 percent. Among position players, Arenado led the Cardinals with plus-7.6 percent WPA despite the team's futility, and Mitchell paced the Brewers at plus-5.6 percent WPA and plus-0.6 RE24, with Alec Burleson contributing plus-4.8 percent WPA on the Milwaukee side as well. The DiamondIQ model leans toward Milwaukee having controlled this game decisively from the third inning forward.