Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Recap

The Minnesota Twins walked off the Houston Astros 3-2 in ten innings on April 6, 2023, at Target Field, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Minnesota win climbing from 54 percent before first pitch to 100 percent by the final out. The game was scoreless through the first two innings before Houston scratched across a run in the third, and Minnesota answered with one of its own in the sixth to tie it. Neither team scored again through the ninth, sending the game to extras with the outcome still firmly in the balance.

The decisive sequence unfolded almost entirely in the bottom of the tenth against Ryne Stanek. Trevor Larnach opened the inning with a walk that shifted win probability by plus-35.4 percent, the single biggest swing of the night by the DiamondIQ model's estimate. Kyle Farmer followed with a single worth plus-15.9 percent, and Jose Miranda delivered the game-winning knock, a single that added another plus-23.7 percent and plated the winning run. Miranda finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus-27.3 percent with a RE24 of plus-0.7, while Larnach was close behind at plus-24.2 percent. Houston's best chances to extend the game came and went in the top of the tenth against Jorge López, as Jeremy Peña's flyout and Chas McCormick's groundout each swung win probability more than 16 percent in Minnesota's favor.

On the mound, both starters were effective enough to keep the contest close deep into the night. José Urquidy led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-22.6 percent for Houston, while Sonny Gray posted plus-22.2 percent for Minnesota, and closer Jhoan Duran contributed plus-13.5 percent in a strong outing. Minnesota finished with 11 hits to Houston's five, giving the Twins the better of the offensive ledger even before the walk-off extras sequence sealed it.