San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap

The Atlanta Braves walked off the San Diego Padres 7-6 on April 6, 2023 at Truist Park, completing a comeback that saw the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win climb from 54% before first pitch all the way to 100% by the game's final out. The Braves trailed through much of the contest before ultimately pulling through in the bottom of the ninth, capping a back-and-forth affair that featured eight lead changes and significant momentum swings in both the eighth and ninth innings.

The decisive moment came in the bottom of the ninth when Orlando Arcia laced a walk-off single off Nabil Crismatt, a hit the DiamondIQ model valued at plus 37.9% in win probability and the single most impactful offensive play of the game. Arcia finished as the top performer by WPA at plus 51.6% with a RE24 of plus 1.8, making him the unambiguous catalyst of the Atlanta victory. The Padres had briefly seized momentum in the top of the eighth when Jose Azocar's single off Kirby Yates swung win probability 29.4% in San Diego's favor, and the visitors had made earlier noise in the fourth inning when Matt Carpenter's home run off Spencer Strider added 25.7% in win probability. San Diego's best chance to close things out evaporated in the top of the ninth when Xander Bogaerts grounded into a double play off A.J. Minter, a swing of minus 19.7% in win probability that effectively handed Atlanta the game.

Matt Carpenter and Matt Olson were Atlanta's other standout contributors, finishing with WPA figures of plus 28.9% and plus 26.8% respectively, with Olson also posting a RE24 of plus 2.0. On the pitching side, Steven Wilson led Atlanta's relievers at plus 15.3% WPA, followed by Minter at plus 13.5% and Domingo Tapia at plus 11.8%, as the Braves bullpen collectively navigated a Padres lineup that finished with seven hits and six runs despite committing no errors on the afternoon.