New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

The Milwaukee Brewers walked off the New York Mets 7-6 on April 5, 2023, at American Family Field, with Garrett Mitchell delivering the decisive blow in the bottom of the ninth inning. The DiamondIQ model opened the game with a 54 percent home win probability for Milwaukee, and by the final out that figure had reached 100 percent, a journey that unfolded through a back-and-forth contest shaped heavily by home run balls from both sides.

The game's largest single win-probability swing came on Mitchell's walk-off home run off Adam Ottavino in the ninth, a hit worth plus 35.9 percent in win probability that ended whatever slim hopes the Mets carried into the final frame. Before that, Pete Alonso had done the most damage for New York, connecting twice off Corbin Burnes — a third-inning blast worth plus 17.4 percent and a fifth-inning shot worth plus 19.3 percent — totaling plus 31.9 percent in win probability and a plus 2.9 RE24 on the night. Milwaukee answered in the fifth through Jesse Winker, whose double off Drew Smith produced a plus 22.4 percent swing and helped claw back a lead the Brewers had first established in the second inning when Joey Wiemer went deep off David Peterson for a plus 14.2 percent swing.

Mitchell finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus 33.6 percent to go with a plus 0.8 RE24, while Winker contributed plus 20.8 percent and a plus 2.0 RE24 in support. Out of the Milwaukee bullpen, John Curtiss led pitchers at plus 15.3 percent, with Devin Williams and Hoby Milner adding plus 13.5 percent and plus 11.5 percent respectively as the Brewers locked down a one-run victory despite allowing six runs on seven hits.