Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago Cubs defeated the Cincinnati Reds 6-2 at Great American Ball Park on April 5, 2023, in a game that was closer through three innings than the final margin suggests. The DiamondIQ model entered with the Reds holding a 51% win probability as the home side, but that figure collapsed steadily as Chicago's offense found its footing against Graham Ashcraft. Cody Bellinger got the Cubs on the board in the fourth inning with a home run off Ashcraft, a swing that shifted win probability 11.8 points in Chicago's favor. The sixth inning proved decisive: Ian Happ doubled off Ashcraft for a 12.8-point swing, and Bellinger followed with a run-producing single off Lucas Sims worth another 10.7 points, effectively draining whatever life remained in Cincinnati's probability of winning. Seiya Suzuki added a home run off Daniel Duarte in the eighth that pushed the margin further, moving the needle 10.5 points.

The most consequential defensive moment came in the bottom of the seventh, when Elly De La Cruz grounded into a double play off Julian Merryweather, erasing 19.4 points of win probability from Cincinnati's ledger at a moment when the Reds might otherwise have threatened. That sequence encapsulated how thoroughly Chicago's pitching staff controlled the game's critical junctures. Bellinger was the day's standout offensive contributor, finishing with a WPA of plus-17.8 and an RE24 of plus-1.1, with his two biggest plate appearances accounting for a combined 22.5 points of win probability. Noelvi Marte led all players with a plus-1.3 RE24 and added 10.5 WPA points for Cincinnati in a losing effort. On the mound, Jordan Wicks paced the Cubs pitching staff with a plus-10.5 WPA, followed by Merryweather at plus-8.8 and Daniel Palencia at plus-7.5, as the three combined to keep the Reds offense largely in check across the game's later innings.