Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Recap

The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the Colorado Rockies 5-2 on April 4, 2023 at Dodger Stadium, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 54 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. Los Angeles built its lead incrementally, scoring twice in the first inning and adding single runs in the third, fourth, and eighth frames, while Colorado managed only a two-run ninth against Evan Phillips that amounted to too little too late. The Rockies finished with seven hits and no errors, but the damage was largely self-inflicted in moments that extinguished early rally attempts.

The game's most consequential sequence came in the third inning, where Colorado's offense squandered its best opportunity. Yonathan Daza singled off Julio Urías for a play worth plus 8.8 percent in win probability, briefly giving the Rockies some life, but C.J. Cron immediately grounded into a double play that swung win probability by minus 14.0 percent, effectively ending the threat and cementing Urías's grip on the game. On the other side of that same inning, Jason Heyward connected for a home run off Germán Márquez worth plus 7.8 percent in win probability, pushing the Dodgers further ahead. Elias Díaz's hit by pitch off Evan Phillips in the ninth registered plus 6.3 percent for Colorado, but the deficit was too large to overcome.

Julio Urías was the game's dominant individual, finishing with a plus 24.0 percent WPA contribution that dwarfed every other player on either roster. Heyward led position players at plus 7.4 percent WPA and added a 0.3 RE24, while Daza's single accounted for plus 6.8 percent WPA and a 0.9 RE24, the best run-expectancy figure among all batters despite Colorado's loss. Max Muncy contributed plus 6.0 percent WPA for Los Angeles, and relievers Caleb Ferguson and Brusdar Graterol provided modest but steady support in the final innings.