Philadelphia Phillies at New York Yankees: Final Score & Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies handed the New York Yankees a 4-1 defeat at Yankee Stadium on April 4, 2023, holding New York to just four hits across nine innings. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with a 54 percent pre-game probability favoring the home side, but that figure eroded steadily and closed at zero percent as Philadelphia's pitching staff controlled the game from start to finish.

The decisive blows came early and in the middle innings. Brandon Marsh got Philadelphia on the board in the third with a home run off Domingo Germán, a swing the DiamondIQ model valued at a 9.8 percent win-probability shift in the Phillies' favor. The fifth inning proved to be the knockout round, as Trea Turner's single off Michael King added another 9.7 percent to Philadelphia's win probability, and Kyle Schwarber followed with a single of his own worth 6.2 percent, extending the Phillies lead to four runs and effectively closing the door on any Yankee comeback.

The performance of the night by the numbers belonged to Matt Strahm, whose outing generated a DiamondIQ model win-probability contribution of plus-23.4 percent, easily the most impactful individual performance on either side. Among position players, Turner led with a WPA of plus-8.5 and an RE24 of plus-0.7, while Schwarber posted a WPA of plus-5.4 and the top RE24 figure among batters at plus-1.4. Marsh contributed a WPA of plus-5.9. Craig Kimbrel closed the ninth, aided by Josh Donaldson's pop out that registered a plus-5.7 percent model swing, finishing off New York's final threat and sealing a clean 4-1 Philadelphia victory on the road.