Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 16 | 0 |
| CIN | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 2 |
The Story
The Chicago Cubs handed the Cincinnati Reds a 12-5 defeat at Great American Ball Park on April 4, 2023, erasing what had been a modest home-field edge heading into the game. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with Cincinnati holding a 54% win probability, but that figure collapsed to 0% by the final out, driven largely by a six-run Cubs seventh inning that turned a competitive game into a rout. Through six innings the Reds had kept things relatively close, with TJ Friedl's third-inning home run off Hayden Wesneski adding 11.1% to Cincinnati's win probability and Jason Vosler's solo shot in the fourth adding another 10.5%, briefly sustaining hope for the home side.
The decisive sequence came in the top of the seventh, when Chicago sent ten batters to the plate against Cincinnati relievers Buck Farmer and Reiver Sanmartin. Ian Happ delivered the frame's most impactful blow, a double off Farmer that swung win probability 14.1% in Chicago's favor. Trey Mancini followed with a single off Sanmartin worth 12.8%, and Patrick Wisdom added another single off Sanmartin worth 11.2%, each hit driving the Reds further from any realistic path to victory. The Cubs added three more runs in the eighth and one in the ninth to reach 12, finishing with 16 hits and no errors against Cincinnati's nine hits and two errors on the night.
Happ led all position players with a WPA of plus-20.1% and a RE24 of plus-1.6, while Wisdom posted the game's highest RE24 at plus-2.3 to go with his plus-16.9% WPA. On the pitching side, Luis Cessa was the Cubs' most valuable arm by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, contributing plus-15.4% to Chicago's win probability, with Adbert Alzolay adding plus-7.0% in support. The Cubs' combination of a clean defensive performance, timely hitting, and effective bullpen work overwhelmed a Reds lineup that had no answer once the seventh inning began.