New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

The Milwaukee Brewers handed the New York Mets a lopsided 10-0 defeat on April 3, 2023, at American Family Field, a game that was effectively decided by a five-run fifth inning built on top of damage done even earlier. The DiamondIQ model entered the night with Milwaukee as a modest 54% favorite, but that estimate climbed steadily and reached 100% by the final out as the Mets managed just three hits and no runs across nine innings.

The decisive blow came in the bottom of the fourth, when Brian Anderson connected on a home run off Carlos Carrasco that swung win probability by 18.6 percentage points, the single largest play of the game by that measure. The damage against Carrasco had already begun an inning earlier, when a Jesse Winker single added 9.8 points of win probability and a Brice Turang walk contributed another 3.8, as Milwaukee constructed the foundation of what would become an overwhelming advantage. The fifth inning buried any remaining doubt, with Willy Adames delivering a single off Tommy Hunter that pushed win probability another 4.0 points in the Brewers' direction as Milwaukee poured across seven runs in the frame.

Among individual performers, Anderson finished as the top offensive contributor with a WPA of plus-18.3% and an RE24 of plus-2.6, while Winker posted a WPA of plus-12.4% and Turang added plus-4.9% WPA alongside a team-best plus-3.0 RE24. On the mound, Freddy Peralta was the standout, accumulating a WPA of plus-18.8% while holding the Mets' offense to just three hits. The Mets' lone bright spot by WPA was a Luis Guillorme single in the third that registered plus-3.9 points, but New York never threatened to generate any meaningful offensive momentum against a dominant Brewers pitching performance.