Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds held off the Chicago Cubs 7-6 on April 3, 2023, at Great American Ball Park in a game that was decided by the fifth inning. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 54% home win probability, and while both clubs traded three-run frames in the first and fifth innings to keep the game tight, it was the Reds who ultimately pulled away and never relinquished the lead after that decisive fifth. Cincinnati's offense did just enough to give the bullpen a margin to protect over the final four innings.

The game's most impactful single moment came in the bottom of the fifth, when Jason Vosler hit a home run off Drew Smyly that swung win probability by plus-34.7%, the largest single-play shift of the night. Just prior in the top half of that inning, Eric Hosmer had doubled off Alex Young to move the needle by plus-22.3% in Chicago's favor, briefly threatening to give the Cubs control. Ian Happ added a double of his own off Connor Overton in that same frame for another plus-12.8% swing, but the Reds answered decisively. Vosler finished as the game's top positional contributor by WPA at plus-31.3% with a RE24 of plus-2.3, while Hosmer was second at plus-17.4% and plus-1.5.

The Reds' bullpen closed the door efficiently despite Chicago's attempts to rally. Reiver Sanmartin delivered a plus-15.6% WPA performance highlighted by a strikeout of Yan Gomes in the seventh that deflated a Cubs threat, and Derek Law followed with a plus-15.2% outing that included retiring Miles Mastrobuoni on a lineout in the ninth to end the game. Buck Farmer contributed plus-10.8% as well. The DiamondIQ model's estimate reached 100% by the final out, reflecting just how thoroughly Cincinnati's relief corps controlled the game's final stages. Jonathan India rounded out the offensive contributors at plus-8.4% WPA for the Reds.