MLB Recap · April 2, 2023

Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros: Final Score & Recap

CWS6
Final
HOU3

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
CWS0000120126130
HOU000001002370

The Story

The Chicago White Sox handed the Houston Astros a 6-3 defeat at Minute Maid Park on April 2, 2023, handing the home side a loss despite Houston entering the game as a 54% favorite according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate. Chicago's offense produced 13 hits without committing an error, while the White Sox pitching staff held Houston to just 7 hits across nine innings. The game remained scoreless through four innings before Chicago seized control and never relinquished it, ultimately pushing the DiamondIQ model's win probability for Houston to 0% by the final out.

The decisive moments were distributed across several innings. Luis Robert Jr. opened the scoring in the fifth with a home run off Luis Garcia that swung win probability 12.7% in Chicago's favor. Yasmani Grandal had set up earlier pressure in the fourth with a double off Garcia worth 9.2% in win probability, though Oscar Colás offset some of that damage by popping out in the same inning at a cost of 8.5%. Colás then contributed meaningfully in the sixth with a double off Phil Maton for a 8.8% swing, and Tim Anderson added to the cushion in the eighth with a double off Seth Martinez that moved the needle another 9.3%.

Among the standout performers, Mike Clevinger led all pitchers with a remarkable +24.5% WPA, anchoring the effort from the mound, while relievers Aaron Bummer and Kendall Graveman added +8.8% and +5.2% respectively to preserve the lead. Offensively, Yoan Moncada topped all batters at +15.3% WPA and +3.2 RE24, narrowly edging Chas McCormick's +15.1% WPA, with Grandal contributing a +14.0% WPA and +2.2 RE24 to round out the most impactful performers on the night.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025CWS bats firstFinalHOU win %CWS win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 54% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Luis Robert Jr. Home Run
Top 5th · off Luis Garcia
+12.7%
Tim Anderson Double
Top 8th · off Seth Martinez
+9.3%
Yasmani Grandal Double
Top 4th · off Luis Garcia
+9.2%
Oscar Colás Double
Top 6th · off Phil Maton
+8.8%
Oscar Colás Pop Out
Top 4th · off Luis Garcia
-8.5%

Top Batters by WPA

Yoán Moncada+15.3%+3.2 RE24
Chas McCormick+15.1%+0.5 RE24
Yasmani Grandal+14.0%+2.2 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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