Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| CIN | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 3 | 9 | 0 |
The Story
The Cincinnati Reds defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates 3-1 at Great American Ball Park on April 2, 2023, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 54 percent pre-game home win probability to certainty by the final out. Cincinnati built its lead in stages, scoring in the second, third, and fifth innings while holding Pittsburgh to a single run across nine frames.
The decisive sequence came from a trio of home-run swings. Jason Vosler opened the scoring in the bottom of the second with a home run off Vince Velasquez, adding 7.6 percent to Cincinnati's win probability. Tyler Stephenson followed with a single in the third that shifted the model another 8.9 percent toward the Reds, and TJ Friedl put the game away in the fifth with a solo home run off Velasquez worth 11.7 percent, the single largest win-probability swing of the contest. Pittsburgh's lone counter came in the top of the fourth, when Bryan Reynolds connected for a home run off Graham Ashcraft that represented a 10.4 percent swing in the Pirates' favor, briefly tightening the game before Cincinnati reasserted control. Andrew McCutchen's flyout in the top of the eighth against Derek Law registered as the game's largest negative swing for Pittsburgh at 8.7 percent, extinguishing the final realistic threat.
Among position players, Friedl led all batters with a 10.3 percent WPA and 0.7 RE24, while Rodolfo Castro contributed 7.1 percent WPA and Stephenson added 5.3 percent. On the mound, Graham Ashcraft was the most impactful arm with 23.8 percent WPA, supported by Derek Law at 14.0 percent and Alexis Díaz at 6.3 percent, as Cincinnati's pitching staff collectively neutralized Pittsburgh across the game's later innings.