MLB Recap · April 2, 2023

Cleveland Guardians at Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Recap

CLE6
Final
SEA5

Line Score

Team12345678910RHE
CLE0300101001691
SEA1030100000591

The Story

The Cleveland Guardians edged the Seattle Mariners 6-5 in ten innings on April 2, 2023, at T-Mobile Park, overcoming a late deficit to hand Seattle a loss the DiamondIQ model had estimated at just a 46 percent chance before first pitch. The game swung dramatically in the tenth, where a Josh Bell walk off Penn Murfee proved to be the single most consequential moment of the night, shifting win probability by 23.2 percent in Cleveland's favor. That walk set the stage for the go-ahead run, and when Cal Raleigh could only produce a flyout against Trevor Stephan to strand Seattle's automatic runner in the bottom half, the Guardians secured the victory, with that out representing a 19.0 percent swing toward Cleveland's side of the ledger.

The Mariners had reasons for optimism through nine innings, largely because of Cal Raleigh, who finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus 42.7 percent with a RE24 of plus 2.0. His third-inning double off Cal Quantrill was Seattle's second most impactful offensive play of the game, swinging win probability 17.5 percent toward the home side as part of a three-run frame that matched Cleveland's own three-run second. Mike Zunino added the most run-environment value of any position player, posting a RE24 of plus 4.0 alongside a WPA of plus 31.3 percent, while Eugenio Suárez contributed a 16.7 percent swing of his own.

On the pitching side, Seattle's bullpen trio of Paul Sewald, Eli Morgan, and Andrés Muñoz each posted positive WPA figures of plus 13.5, plus 10.9, and plus 10.6 percent respectively, keeping the Mariners in the game through nine innings. Ultimately, however, the combination of Gabriel Arias striking out against Gabe Speier for a 16.7 percent Cleveland-favorable swing and the decisive Bell walk in the tenth proved too much for Seattle to overcome, as Sam Haggerty's groundout to end the ninth had already burned one last opportunity, shifting probability 14.0 percent away from the home side heading into extras.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025CLE bats firstFinalSEA win %CLE win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 54% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Josh Bell Walk
Top 10th · off Penn Murfee
+23.2%
Cal Raleigh Flyout
Bot 10th · off Trevor Stephan
+19.0%
Cal Raleigh Double
Bot 3rd · off Cal Quantrill
+17.5%
Gabriel Arias Strikeout
Top 10th · off Gabe Speier
+16.7%
Sam Haggerty Groundout
Bot 9th · off Enyel De Los Santos
+14.0%

Top Batters by WPA

Cal Raleigh+42.7%+2.0 RE24
Mike Zunino+31.3%+4.0 RE24
Eugenio Suárez+16.7%+0.9 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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