Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 13 | 0 |
| CHC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 1 |
The Story
The Milwaukee Brewers overcame an early Cubs lead to win 9-5 at Wrigley Field on April 2, 2023, erasing a 54% pre-game home win probability entirely by game's end, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate settling at 0% for Chicago. Milwaukee scored in each of the first four innings before delivering the decisive blow in a five-run sixth that effectively ended the contest. The Cubs managed just two runs after the sixth inning, in the eighth, but the damage had long been done by then.
The game's most consequential sequence began in the fourth inning when Garrett Mitchell laced a triple off Jameson Taillon, the highest single-play swing of the night at plus 16.2% in win probability for Milwaukee. That rally was partially blunted when Victor Caratini grounded into a fielder's choice out, costing the Brewers 8.8% in win probability off the same pitcher. The sixth inning against Julian Merryweather proved decisive, with Jesse Winker delivering a single worth plus 10.2%, followed by Willy Adames adding a single at plus 8.6% and Christian Yelich drawing a walk at plus 8.1%, building the five-run frame that put the game out of reach.
Among individual performers, Winker finished as Milwaukee's most impactful batter with a WPA of plus 14.7% and a RE24 of plus 1.0, while Mitchell posted plus 12.3% WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.9 despite his rally being only partially converted. Brice Turang contributed plus 10.4% WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.8. On the mound, starter Eric Lauer anchored the pitching staff with a plus 10.2% WPA, with Mark Leiter Jr. adding plus 5.5% in support. The DiamondIQ model favors the Brewers' overall execution on both sides of the ball as the primary driver of this outcome.