Toronto Blue Jays at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Toronto Blue Jays 9-4 on April 2, 2023 at Busch Stadium, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected almost from the start. St. Louis entered with a 54% pre-game home win probability, and by the final out that figure had climbed to 100%, a swing driven almost entirely by a Cardinals offense that did its most decisive damage in the first and third innings.

The Cardinals struck first in the bottom of the first when Jordan Walker's lineout represented a +7.4% win-probability swing against Chris Bassitt, a sign of early pressure that set the tone. Toronto responded in the top of the second, scoring three runs — the highlight being Danny Jansen's single off Jordan Montgomery that carried a +5.9% win-probability impact — briefly shifting momentum toward the visitors. But the bottom of the third erased any Blue Jays optimism decisively. Alec Burleson's double off Bassitt added +5.6%, Nolan Arenado followed with a single worth +4.9%, and then Nolan Gorman delivered the knockout blow with a home run off Bassitt that swung the model's estimate by +14.4% in a single moment. St. Louis added two more in the fourth and led comfortably from there.

Gorman finished as the game's most impactful offensive performer by a wide margin, posting a +17.6% WPA and a +3.1 RE24, while Burleson added +10.7% WPA and a +2.8 RE24 to support the case that the Cardinals' middle of the order was the determining factor. On the mound, Jordan Montgomery was the standout, contributing +3.6% WPA as the Cardinals' pitching staff held Toronto to four runs on ten hits without committing an error. Bassitt absorbed the bulk of the damage, surrendering the critical third-inning cluster that effectively decided the contest.