Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres opened their home slate on April 1, 2023, defeating the Colorado Rockies 8-4 at Petco Park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a San Diego win climbing from 54% before first pitch to a certainty by the final out. The Padres built their cushion methodically, scoring two in the first and two more in the third before Colorado mounted its most significant threat. Matt Carpenter's double off José Ureña in the bottom of the third was the game's second-most consequential swing, adding 10.6 percentage points to San Diego's win probability and extending the lead at a moment when the Rockies had not yet found their footing offensively.

Colorado's best sustained push came in the top of the sixth, when the Rockies strung together three consecutive extra-base hits off Michael Wacha to close the deficit temporarily. Ryan McMahon's double opened the frame and added 8.5 points of win probability for Colorado, Charlie Blackmon followed with a double of his own worth 9.5 points, and then C.J. Cron deposited a home run that represented the single largest win-probability swing of the game at plus 15.2 points, pulling the Rockies within striking distance. San Diego responded with a run of their own in the sixth and then put the game away with two in the eighth, at which point McMahon grounded into a double play off Tim Hill that erased 8.9 points of Colorado's remaining hope.

On the individual ledger, Charlie Blackmon led all batters with a cumulative WPA of plus 14.7 and a RE24 of plus 0.9, while Matt Carpenter posted plus 13.1 WPA and led position players with a RE24 of plus 2.2. Cron contributed plus 10.7 WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.5 despite the Rockies falling short. San Diego's bullpen closed the door efficiently, with Tim Hill generating plus 8.1 WPA and Steven Wilson adding plus 7.2 as the Padres converted a comfortable late lead into the final margin.