Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates 6-2 on April 1, 2023, at Great American Ball Park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Cincinnati win climbing from 54% before the first pitch to a virtual certainty by the final out. The Reds struck first in the bottom of the first inning, building a 3-1 lead before the Pirates had found their footing, and a three-run sixth inning closed the door entirely on any Pittsburgh comeback.

The most consequential sequence of the game came in the bottom of the sixth, when Jake Fraley's home run off Chase De Jong delivered an 18.1% swing in win probability, the single largest play of the contest. That blow, compounded moments later by a Tyler Stephenson single off De Jong that added another 6.4%, effectively ended Pittsburgh's hopes. The Pirates had their own moment earlier in the game, when Oneil Cruz's third-inning single off Nick Lodolo generated a 10.1% positive swing for Pittsburgh, briefly keeping the game within reach. However, a Bryan Reynolds groundout in the second and a Ji Hwan Bae strikeout in the third, each costing the Pirates roughly 6.5% and 6.4% respectively, blunted Pittsburgh's opportunities against Lodolo before they could materialize into runs.

Fraley finished as the game's top offensive performer, posting a 17.3% WPA and a 2.1 RE24, while Cruz led Pittsburgh's contributors with an 8.5% WPA and a 1.1 RE24 despite the team's overall offensive struggles. On the mound, Nick Lodolo was the standout, accumulating a 13.0% WPA in his outing, supported by Ian Gibaut at 7.3% and Buck Farmer at 4.6% as Cincinnati's bullpen preserved the comfortable margin through the final frames.