Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap

The Boston Red Sox walked off the Baltimore Orioles 9-8 on April 1, 2023, at Fenway Park in a game defined by explosive scoring and a stunning ninth-inning conclusion. The DiamondIQ model entered the night giving Boston a 54% chance of winning, a margin that shifted dramatically through three-plus hours of back-and-forth baseball before reaching 100% at the final out.

The game's decisive moment came in the bottom of the ninth, when Adam Duvall crushed a home run off Félix Bautista to end it, a swing that carried a win-probability swing of plus 90.2% according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate. That blow capped a remarkable individual performance from Duvall, who finished with a cumulative WPA of plus 124.8% and an RE24 of plus 5.3, making him the clear difference-maker on the night. He had already delivered a home run in the bottom of the third off Dean Kremer, worth plus 14.1% in win probability, and added a double in the seventh off Cionel Pérez that shifted Boston's chances by another plus 17.6%. The scoring was bunched heavily in the early innings, with Baltimore posting three in the first and four in the third, while Boston answered with four of their own in the third to keep pace.

Baltimore's best individual contribution came from Cedric Mullins, whose home run off Chris Sale in the top of the third registered a plus 15.2% win-probability swing and left the Orioles briefly in control of the game. Mullins finished with a WPA of plus 11.9% and an RE24 of plus 1.8. On the Boston pitching side, Keegan Akin posted the best WPA among relievers at plus 16.5%, aided in part by Alex Verdugo's flyout in the eighth that cost Boston minus 16.5% in win probability. Enrique Hernández contributed offensively with a plus 16.7% WPA and a plus 1.4 RE24, supporting Duvall in what became a memorable Fenway finish.