San Francisco Giants at New York Yankees: Final Score & Recap

The San Francisco Giants handed the New York Yankees a 7-5 defeat at Yankee Stadium on April 1, 2023, in a game that saw the DiamondIQ model's pre-game home win probability of 54 percent for New York collapse to zero by the final out. San Francisco built its lead in stages, with Brandon Crawford delivering the decisive blow in the top of the fourth inning, a home run off Clarke Schmidt that shifted win probability 15.0 percentage points in the Giants' favor. The Giants added two more in the sixth and two again in the ninth, finishing with 12 hits against a Yankees club that could not sustain enough late-inning pressure to close the gap.

The Yankees mounted their most credible threat in the eighth and ninth innings, but the model's numbers tell the story of a rally that fell just short. Josh Donaldson's home run off Taylor Rogers in the bottom of the eighth, worth a 18.2-point swing, briefly reanimated New York's chances, yet Oswaldo Cabrera's pop out in the same frame cost the Yankees 12.9 percentage points and effectively stalled the momentum. In the ninth, Anthony Rizzo drew a walk off Camilo Doval that added 18.6 points to New York's win probability, keeping the inning alive, but Giancarlo Stanton grounded into a double play moments later, a swing of negative 13.8 points that sealed San Francisco's victory.

Crawford and Rizzo each finished as the game's top offensive contributors by WPA, both posting identical marks of plus-29.1 percent with RE24 figures of plus-2.9 and plus-2.2, respectively, while Mike Yastrzemski added plus-10.9 percent on the pitching side, John Brebbia led the San Francisco staff with plus-8.8 percent WPA, followed by Albert Abreu at plus-7.7 and Wandy Peralta at plus-5.3, a bullpen performance that proved essential to preserving the road win.