Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The Milwaukee Brewers handed the Chicago Cubs a 3-1 defeat at Wrigley Field on April 1, 2023, erasing a pre-game deficit in the DiamondIQ model's estimate that had pegged Chicago as a 54% favorite before first pitch. Neither team scored through the first five innings, and it was Ian Happ who broke the deadlock in the bottom of the sixth with a home run off Brandon Woodruff, giving the Cubs what appeared to be a tenuous lead. That moment carried a win-probability swing of plus 15.2% in Chicago's favor, but it would prove to be the team's only offense of the afternoon.

The game turned decisively in the top of the eighth inning, where Milwaukee strung together the sequence that ultimately closed out the Cubs for good. William Contreras delivered the most impactful single swing of the game, a base hit off Michael Fulmer that shifted the DiamondIQ model's estimate by plus 26.4% in Milwaukee's favor, and Jesse Winker followed with a single off Javier Assad worth another plus 16.8%. The Brewers pushed three runs across in that frame while Chicago could not recover. Cody Bellinger grounded into a double play in the bottom of the ninth against Devin Williams, a play that swung win probability minus 14.8% for the Cubs and effectively sealed the result.

On the pitching side, Justin Steele was the game's most valuable arm by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, finishing with a plus 27.3% WPA contribution despite pitching for the losing team, reflecting his effectiveness through much of the contest before the bullpen was unable to hold. Brandon Woodruff added plus 15.4% WPA for Milwaukee, and Matt Bush contributed plus 13.3% in relief. Among hitters, Contreras led all batters with a plus 20.3% WPA mark, while Winker's plus 16.8% and Happ's plus 13.0% rounded out the most consequential offensive performances of the afternoon.