MLB Preview · September 9, 2026
Houston Astros at Philadelphia Phillies: Prediction, Odds & Preview
HOU 73-70at PHI 80-63·Citizens Bank Park·
DiamondIQ Model — Win Probability
HOU44.9%55.1%PHI
The model leans PHI (55.1%). DiamondIQ model v2: season records, home-field advantage, the starting-pitcher quality gap (PitchIQ), and a calibration adjustment fit and validated on four seasons of backtest — plus live game state once underway.
Probable Pitchers
HOU
ERA
3.31
WHIP
1.30
K%
25.5
BB%
12.6
K/9
9.62
IP
87.0
Arsenal
Four-Seam 32% · 96mphSinker 30% · 96mphCurveball 19% · 83mphChangeup 10% · 88mphSlider 9% · 91mph
PHI
Probable pitcher TBD.
Forecast at First Pitch
☁️78°FOvercast
Wind 5 mph W · L→R
Precip 0%
Injured List
HOU
Mike Burrows (P)Injured 15-Day
Steven Okert (P)Injured 15-Day
Brandon Walter (P)Injured 60-Day
Brice Matthews (CF)Injured 60-Day
Carlos Correa (SS)Injured 60-Day
PHI
Caleb Kilian (P)Injured 15-Day
Adolis García (RF)Injured 60-Day
Brad Keller (P)Injured 60-Day
Felix Reyes (LF)Injured 60-Day
Johan Rojas (CF)Injured 60-Day
Tanner Banks (P)Injured 60-Day
Follow it live in the Game Center
Live win probability, pitch-by-pitch, and the model updating in real time.