MLB Preview · September 7, 2026
Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies: Prediction, Odds & Preview
ATL 84-58at PHI 80-62·Citizens Bank Park·
DiamondIQ Model — Win Probability
ATL46.9%53.1%PHI
The model leans PHI (53.1%). DiamondIQ model v2: season records, home-field advantage, the starting-pitcher quality gap (PitchIQ), and a calibration adjustment fit and validated on four seasons of backtest — plus live game state once underway.
Probable Pitchers
ATL
ERA
3.62
WHIP
1.31
K%
18.5
BB%
9.8
K/9
7.11
IP
131.2
Arsenal
Slider 37% · 85mphFour-Seam 29% · 94mphSinker 12% · 93mphCutter 9% · 92mphCurveball 8% · 83mph
PHI
ERA
3.02
WHIP
1.12
K%
30.0
BB%
7.3
K/9
11.09
IP
169.2
Arsenal
Sweeper 38% · 86mphFour-Seam 26% · 97mphChangeup 19% · 86mphSinker 17% · 96mph
Forecast at First Pitch
☀️76°FClear
Wind 4 mph NE · in from CF
Precip 0%
Model vs Market
MoneylineATL +138 · PHI -160
Total8
Market implied (PHI)59.4%
Model − market (PHI)-6.4 pts
Consensus across 3 books · for information only, not betting advice.
Injured List
ATL
Reynaldo López (P)Injured 15-Day
Joe Jiménez (P)Injured 60-Day
Joey Wentz (P)Injured 60-Day
Robert Suarez (P)Injured 60-Day
Spencer Schwellenbach (P)Injured 60-Day
Spencer Strider (P)Injured 60-Day
PHI
Caleb Kilian (P)Injured 15-Day
Adolis García (RF)Injured 60-Day
Brad Keller (P)Injured 60-Day
Felix Reyes (LF)Injured 60-Day
Johan Rojas (CF)Injured 60-Day
Tanner Banks (P)Injured 60-Day
Follow it live in the Game Center
Live win probability, pitch-by-pitch, and the model updating in real time.