MLB Preview · September 6, 2026
San Francisco Giants at New York Mets: Prediction, Odds & Preview
SF 59-84at NYM 64-78·Citi Field·
DiamondIQ Model — Win Probability
SF45%55%NYM
The model leans NYM (55%). DiamondIQ model v2: season records, home-field advantage, the starting-pitcher quality gap (PitchIQ), and a calibration adjustment fit and validated on four seasons of backtest — plus live game state once underway.
Probable Pitchers
SF
ERA
2.25
WHIP
1.00
K%
26.7
BB%
6.7
K/9
9.00
IP
4.0
Arsenal
Four-Seam 53% · 93mphSlider 40% · 86mphChangeup 7% · 87mph
NYM
ERA
3.80
WHIP
1.31
K%
27.4
BB%
10.7
K/9
10.74
IP
94.2
Arsenal
Four-Seam 47% · 96mphSweeper 24% · 81mphCutter 18% · 90mphCurveball 6% · 82mphSlider 4% · 82mph
Pitch-Type Matchup — Opposing Lineups vs the Starters
| Pitch | Usage | SF wOBA | SF Whiff | NYM wOBA | NYM Whiff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seam | 101% | .368 | 26% | .353 | 19% |
| Slider | 44% | .313 | 31% | .269 | 32% |
| Sweeper | 24% | .311 | 25% | .287 | 31% |
| Cutter | 18% | .381 | 21% | .401 | 18% |
| Changeup | 10% | .308 | 24% | .316 | 27% |
| Curveball | 6% | .322 | 19% | .270 | 27% |
Season Statcast: how each lineup has fared against these pitch types.
Forecast at First Pitch
☀️74°FClear
Wind 9 mph NNE · in from CF
Precip 2%
Model vs Market
MoneylineSF +143 · NYM -168
Total8
Market implied (NYM)60.4%
Model − market (NYM)-5.4 pts
Consensus across 9 books · for information only, not betting advice.
Injured List
SF
JT Brubaker (P)Injured 10-Day
Marcelo Mayer (2B)Injured 10-Day
Victor Bericoto (LF)Injured 10-Day
Willy Adames (SS)Injured 10-Day
Sam Hentges (P)Injured 15-Day
Adrian Houser (P)Injured 60-Day
NYM
Cionel Pérez (P)Injured 15-Day
Devin Williams (P)Injured 15-Day
Jorge Polanco (DH)Injured 60-Day
Reed Garrett (P)Injured 60-Day
Tylor Megill (P)Injured 60-Day
Follow it live in the Game Center
Live win probability, pitch-by-pitch, and the model updating in real time.