MLB Preview · September 6, 2026
Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astros: Prediction, Odds & Preview
AZ 75-68at HOU 73-70·Daikin Park·
DiamondIQ Model — Win Probability
AZ47.5%52.5%HOU
The model leans HOU (52.5%). DiamondIQ model v2: season records, home-field advantage, the starting-pitcher quality gap (PitchIQ), and a calibration adjustment fit and validated on four seasons of backtest — plus live game state once underway.
Probable Pitchers
AZ
ERA
2.59
WHIP
1.22
K%
17.8
BB%
8.0
K/9
6.57
IP
167.0
Arsenal
Four-Seam 39% · 92mphChangeup 27% · 86mphCutter 13% · 89mphCurveball 12% · 80mphSinker 9% · 92mph
HOU
ERA
3.66
WHIP
1.24
K%
23.1
BB%
9.9
K/9
8.89
IP
132.2
Arsenal
Four-Seam 31% · 94mphChangeup 24% · 87mphSlider 12% · 86mphCutter 11% · 92mphSinker 9% · 93mph
Pitch-Type Matchup — Opposing Lineups vs the Starters
| Pitch | Usage | AZ wOBA | AZ Whiff | HOU wOBA | HOU Whiff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seam | 71% | .379 | 17% | .355 | 22% |
| Changeup | 51% | .265 | 23% | .314 | 28% |
| Cutter | 24% | .369 | 19% | .348 | 19% |
| Sinker | 18% | .403 | 11% | .371 | 11% |
| Slider | 17% | .322 | 24% | .325 | 30% |
| Curveball | 12% | .306 | 23% | .273 | 32% |
Season Statcast: how each lineup has fared against these pitch types.
Forecast at First Pitch
🌧️81°FShowers
Wind 6 mph SSE · out to CF
Precip 28%
Model vs Market
MoneylineAZ -105 · HOU -111
Total8
Market implied (HOU)50.7%
Model − market (HOU)+1.8 pts
Consensus across 9 books · for information only, not betting advice.
Injured List
AZ
Michael Soroka (P)Injured 15-Day
A.J. Puk (P)Injured 60-Day
Andrew Saalfrank (P)Injured 60-Day
Corbin Burnes (P)Injured 60-Day
Cristian Mena (P)Injured 60-Day
Ryan Thompson (P)Injured 60-Day
HOU
Mike Burrows (P)Injured 15-Day
Steven Okert (P)Injured 15-Day
Brandon Walter (P)Injured 60-Day
Brice Matthews (CF)Injured 60-Day
Carlos Correa (SS)Injured 60-Day
Follow it live in the Game Center
Live win probability, pitch-by-pitch, and the model updating in real time.