MLB Preview · September 6, 2026
Athletics at Seattle Mariners: Prediction, Odds & Preview
ATH 57-86at SEA 66-77·T-Mobile Park·
DiamondIQ Model — Win Probability
ATH43.3%56.7%SEA
The model leans SEA (56.7%). DiamondIQ model v2: season records, home-field advantage, the starting-pitcher quality gap (PitchIQ), and a calibration adjustment fit and validated on four seasons of backtest — plus live game state once underway.
Probable Pitchers
ATH
ERA
5.15
WHIP
1.49
K%
24.3
BB%
11.1
K/9
9.62
IP
92.2
Arsenal
Four-Seam 46% · 96mphSlider 23% · 87mphCurveball 11% · 82mphChangeup 9% · 88mphSweeper 6% · 84mph
SEA
ERA
4.25
WHIP
1.09
K%
24.6
BB%
5.1
K/9
9.04
IP
148.1
Arsenal
Four-Seam 47% · 96mphSinker 19% · 96mphSlider 15% · 87mphSweeper 11% · 85mphChangeup 6% · 90mph
Pitch-Type Matchup — Opposing Lineups vs the Starters
| Pitch | Usage | ATH wOBA | ATH Whiff | SEA wOBA | SEA Whiff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seam | 94% | .384 | 23% | — | — |
| Slider | 38% | .276 | 33% | — | — |
| Sinker | 24% | .329 | 16% | — | — |
| Sweeper | 17% | .268 | 34% | — | — |
| Changeup | 15% | .277 | 31% | — | — |
| Curveball | 13% | .223 | 39% | — | — |
Season Statcast: how each lineup has fared against these pitch types.
Forecast at First Pitch
☀️67°FClear
Wind 7 mph NNW · L→R
Precip 0%
Model vs Market
MoneylineATH +168 · SEA -200
Total7
Market implied (SEA)64.1%
Model − market (SEA)-7.4 pts
Consensus across 9 books · for information only, not betting advice.
Injured List
ATH
Shea Langeliers (C)Injured 10-Day
Tyler Soderstrom (LF)Injured 10-Day
J.T. Ginn (P)Injured 15-Day
Brent Rooker (DH)Injured 60-Day
Brooks Kriske (P)Injured 60-Day
Gunnar Hoglund (P)Injured 60-Day
SEA
Brendan Donovan (3B)Injured 7-Day
Cole Wilcox (P)Injured 15-Day
Emerson Hancock (P)Injured 15-Day
Nick Davila (P)Injured 15-Day
Brennen Davis (CF)Injured 60-Day
Colt Emerson (SS)Injured 60-Day
Follow it live in the Game Center
Live win probability, pitch-by-pitch, and the model updating in real time.