Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | - | 4 | 13 | 0 |
The Story
The Cincinnati Reds shut out the Chicago Cubs 4-0 on July 10, 2026, at Great American Ball Park, handing Chicago a clean-sheet loss on four hits while Cincinnati collected 13. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with Cincinnati holding a 45 percent pre-game win probability and closed at 100 percent, a journey driven almost entirely by two innings of decisive offense against a Cubs pitching staff that otherwise kept the game close until the seventh.
The game's turning point arrived in the fifth inning when Elly De La Cruz connected on a solo home run off Shota Imanaga, a swing worth a 12.4 percent shift in win probability that gave Cincinnati its first lead of the night. The Reds then broke the game open in the seventh against Jake Woodford. De La Cruz added a triple that moved the DiamondIQ model another 8.7 percent toward Cincinnati, and JJ Bleday followed with a home run that registered as the single biggest play of the evening at plus-12.6 percent win probability, effectively ending any realistic path to a Cubs comeback. On the Chicago side, Michael Conforto's strikeout against Hunter Greene in the top of the seventh erased an opportunity at the worst possible moment, costing the Cubs 8.5 percent in win probability.
De La Cruz finished as the game's top offensive performer, accumulating a combined plus-17.4 percent in WPA and plus-1.1 RE24 across his home run and triple, while Bleday contributed plus-9.5 percent WPA and a game-best plus-1.3 RE24. Hunter Greene was the dominant force on the mound, posting a remarkable plus-40.6 percent WPA to lead all pitchers by a wide margin, holding Chicago's lineup in check through the innings that mattered most.